Studs Up – GW7

Take a week off! You’ve deserve it… We’ve got another wonderfully timed international break where all the best players go off to get injured.

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Likes

Siggy. Yeah right, let’s trade him out! Not this season. Granted Newcastle were horrid at the back, Coloccini in particular, but he had the talent to do what he did. Two sumptuous assists put a couple of goals on platters for his mates, and reminded us all why we picked him and will keep him.

Hull. They look a great attacking team. We should spend more time on these guys… Their defence wasn’t great prior this week, their only previous cleanie was against QPR so you can’t read too much, and this week was against Palace. It’s a shame they have a disgustfully tough 3 games coming up, BUT they did score 2 against City so they’ve got it in them. The likes of Jelavic and Hernandez stand out, but so does Diame. I’ve been a big fan since he was at West Ham, he just never got a decent run at it… He has Yaya Toure written all over him. Consider.

Lallana. I’ve picked this guy out as a huge POD shout. He looked great in the derby last round, and got amongst it this one. After the break Liverpool have QPR, Hull and Newcastle and I can see him going large. If you’re in the market put him in the mix, then thank me later. He won’t be any cheaper than 8.4m again and has only 0.7% ownership…

Manager’s fighting. Love it! But there’s a common thread with all of the recent stuff. Jose Mourinho. First there was the Jose v Villa gaffer Paul Lambert, then last night (and all week leading up to the game to be honest) was Jose v Arsene Wenger. I must admit my memory isn’t so good, but I don’t recall him being this much of a prick during his first spell in England? Or are we being too precious? It’s not like he headbutted anyone…

Honourable mentions; Rabbitohs; BURNLEY SCORE!!! TWICE!!! Tiote getting his second wife…

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Dislikes

Everton. Seriously unlucky to drop 2 points, but this is overdue nonetheless… My boys are really struggling. Gone is the fluent one touch passing and intricate attacking build up of last campaign. We seem to find it really difficult to take the ball from the defenders and defensive mids, up to our attacking players. And when we do, those attacking players are butchering it. I think we really, really miss Barkley who was so often the go between and was able take the ball into the final 3rd on his own. The other vital cog has been the loss of Coleman. As much as us Toffees love Tony Hibbert (and you better not leave the house when he finally scores), he has is deficiencies and isn’t able to play that marauding wing back role that’s so important to this style of play. The imminent return of Ross and Seamus will be immense, but they can’t carry the burden of turning around this season. Lukaku hasn’t got back to full fitness, well I hope he’s not fit. If he is and he’s turning in these sort of performances all the gloating about the Fellaini transfer goes out the window. He needs to get his act together or move aside for Eto’o for a while. McGeady hasn’t filled in for the loss of Deulofeu like we’d hoped or needed him too. He needs to pull his finger out too. Barry has been ok, but not the same as last season. The only positive thusfar can be the form of Naismith, he’s been a revelation. But what will become of him when Ross comes back? Stones too is showing a heap, but is now out for a month! That means the really ordinary Distin comes back… Bainesy has been trying his heart out as he always does, but something’s amiss. Maybe the World Cup has taken its toll. I’d be weary of looking at our upcoming fixtures and saying any are “easy” or “tasty”. Every game on the horizon will be a struggle…

Early game. What? No early game! Boooo.

Pre-emptive. No. Wickham is not a good option. Neither is Fletcher.

Pardew. Come on Ashley…. This is like a death row inmate going through their last appeals process. We’re just delaying the inevitable. If for some miracle he does keep his job, what’s he going to get Papiss Cisse for Chrsitmas?!?! I’d suggest a gold plated Bentley.

Defensive consistency. Broken record. Don’t spend big on your defence, this is a goal scoring season. Reassess come the New Year but your money is better spent in the attacking areas.

Honourable mentions; Guts to drop Mario; Rooney not needed? Tiote getting his second wife…

Ryan Bennett Award – Andrew Robertson. Great left back, and by the end of the season could be amongst the top handful in the EPL. If Hull can get some defensive consistency then this bloke is immense value at 4.5m. He notched his first assist for the season, but not through trying. He’s one of the best crossers in the league and likes to swing them in.

Jonjo Shelvey Award – Riyhad Mahrez. Squad player for a promoted team immediately means a big red cross for FPL relevance. He scored a goal, an assist and full BPs against the might of Burnley…

Jamie Vardy Award – Steven Fletcher. Hasn’t scored this year until now… That’s a long time. Fletcher has always looked like an accomplished striker but a combination of injury and playing in shite teams meant he’s never really gone ahead and put together a 20 goal season. 2 goals, and assist and full BPs could kick start something. Just, hold off. They have a very tough couple of months coming up.

Baysie out.

 

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42 comments on “Studs Up – GW7

  1. Ryan says:

    I don’t have him and I probably won’t get him, but I’m beginning to think that Downing will actually keep his scoring up the rest of the season. Also: love Lallana, I thought he has been fantastic so far, him, Sterling and Henderson are doing an awesome job to keep Liverpool out of the bottom three, so far …

    • baysietoff says:

      Downing may just do that, he’s playing a handy role in a team being given some freedom. Stranger things have happened!

      • Shaun Curnow says:

        Downing has pretty good run with fixtures over next 10 weeks….. Can’t believe i’m actually considering him, but at worst he’ll be handy backup at low price of 5.6

  2. Rakshit says:

    Mourinho vs Arsene was undoubtedly the moment of the week for me. Wenger was all fired up. Whereas his players werent.

    Scored a decent 72 this week. A shout out to my differential the week- Diafra Sakho. He’s been quietly going about his business and scored in his 3rd successive game. West Ham look decent going forward and they have Burnley up next. I have my fingers crossed.

  3. theultimateandy says:

    Guy in one of my leagues has Apil and Ivan in defence… I have no Chelsea cover at all. He keeps beating me by 5 or 10 points when they keep a clean sheet! Plus they’re both handy for assists.

    Tempted to take a hit and bring one of em in to narrow the gap.

  4. brandonpietie says:

    What about Diafra Sakho hey??? 5 goals in 5 matches??? And Burney next, you gotta think he is not done yet!

    • theultimateandy says:

      Look at Ulloa, goals in every match and then nothing against Burnley… Nothings ever certain!

      • baysietoff says:

        Right there. And the more games you score in a row, the closer you are to not scoring!

        I just don’t like these newbie flash in the pan strikers playing in lowly teams. It’s unsustainable.

        • ahaha it’s a classic case of human psychology! If you flipped a coin 50 times in a row and got 50 heads, you’re going to start thinking ‘ahhh, it’s going to be tails next’. But it’s not – there is still a 50-50 chance of getting head regardless of what happened previously.

          I guess my point is that just because a player is scoring every week, don’t all of a sudden think he’s going to stop!

          • *50-50 chance of getting ‘heads’, not head ahaha

            • baysietoff says:

              Damn I thought you were pointing us down the direction of male happiness……. 🙂

              Scoring a goal in a game of football, at any level, is far from a 50/50 chance. Outside of your freaks like Ronaldo or Messi it’s at best 1 in 3 for your run of the mill striker. This guy IS NOT a superstar like any of the superstar strikers you may name…

              Stats and history suggest he’ll get to around the 15 goal mark give or take 3 or 4. He’s got what 5, so 10 in the next 30 ain’t getting me ready for no head.

  5. Jason says:

    Thoughts on this team

    De Gea (Krul)
    Cahill, Clyne, N. Taylor (Wisdom, Vlaar)
    Di Maria, Hazard, Sterling, Siggy (Marney)
    Costa, Pelle, Ulloa

    1.8mil, 1FT

    Is it worth going Marney-Downing and to be able to swap between 3-4-3 and 3-5-2 or going Ulloa-Welbeck?
    I’m thinking Marney-Downing at this stage. Thoughts?

  6. Gary says:

    The big question is Lallana or Sterling .. what do you thinks ?

  7. Hero says:

    Can afford to go Falcao to Aguero. With coy’s fixtures should I pull the trigger??

    • baysietoff says:

      Yeah just not yet if you don’t have to. A lot can happen between now and the next EPL gameweek!

      • Hero says:

        Thanks lads. I’ll give it a week Man U have west brom and city have spurs. That will leave me with costa, welbeck and Aguero upfront, Siggy, Sterling,Tadic and ADM in mids and Moreno, clyne and A 4 mill rotating defender

    • Harrison White says:

      Given no injuries over the break I think this is a top move. It seems aguero is just starting to heat up and with a solid run of fixtures, its almost inevitable that 10 plus scores will regularly occur.

  8. Harrison White says:

    You speak highly of Diame but is he worthy of a start or just a m5?

  9. On a side note, just to see the result, I’ve done a quick analysis. Using stats, I have calculated that Leonard Ulloa (without taking into consideration form or opposition or the relative difficulty of the epl compared to lower leagues) was most likely to score 14.38 goals at the start of the season.

    To compare, after 7 games, stats suggest that he will score 16.972 goals this season (you were right John!)

    If you however, just took the data based on his season so far, Leonard Ulloa will score 27.143 goals. Now of course this is a terribly small sample space, and to get a reliable prediction you usually need around 30 samples minimum (in the epl). He will most likely fall well short of this mark.

    Anyway, just my two cents. You can pretty much do this with any player but ones that have played a full season (preferably with the same club in the same league i.e. the championship may be at a different difficulty level to the PL so will alter your prediction) will give the most accurate predictions. It’d be interesting to see whether that is proved true come the end of the season!

    P.S. If you REALLY wanted to get in-depth with maths, I could tell you that he has a 47% chance of scoring between 14 and 16 goals, a 94.33% chance of scoring between 12 and 18 goals and a 13.19% chance of scoring more than 16 goals. Even the luckiest man alive wouldn’t gamble on him scoring more than 20 though in one season – he has a 0.005312% chance of doing this! I could probably also give you a 99% confidence interval if you wanted, but I can’t be bothered going to my notes to figure out how to do it again. It’d probably be good revision though 😀

    These odds are based on the first set of data I used i.e. before he came to the epl.

    Enjoy 🙂

    • Bio Eden Hazard says:

      ahah mate I’m doing a MBA and studying stats right now. I see where you’re coming from 🙂

      • Ahaha that’s good! I was like ‘did I make it too in-depth?’, so the fact that you understand it makes me feel a bit better!

        I was sitting there for 20 minutes thinking about whether to use the central limit theorem SD or just the normal SD but I think the CLT SD makes more sense?

  10. N1qQ45 4R3 K1nG5 says:

    Shit week and another drop in the rankings but at least I got this article to enjoy after the weekend.
    Can’t get a thing going right for me atm, third year blues….

  11. hconron says:

    best replacement for herrera? already have fab, hazard, siggy, sterling and 0.7 in the bank? is it worth downgrading to diame as a m5 and then upgrading other areas next week?

    • Ryan says:

      I’d go for Diame if it means you can have three strikers that you are happy to start every week because there isn’t much else that you can directly afford. ADM is a gun and WILL keep up his form, Downing also an option

  12. george021 says:

    Hello guys,

    I was wondering whether anybody is doing A-League Fantasy this season (on the FoxSports website or the A-League website) and if so whether there is going to be a write up about the upcoming A-League season and the good buys for the A-League Fantasy games?

    Thanks.

    • baysietoff says:

      Hi George, last week’s Studs Up has a couple of FPLaddict A League Fantasy leagues for you! And I don’t know of any intentions to do any articles. There seems to be some huge discrepancies between the pricing the in the different comps however. From memory McGlinchey is super cheap in the official one.

      Also, there’s been a couple of fixture changes come through, WSW v CMC GW3 and WSW v Roar GW4 have been moved and those rescheduled games won’t add to our scores. That’s the official game, dunno about FoxSports.

      • george021 says:

        Ok, thank you. Just saw those leagues at the bottom of last weeks Studs up, must have missed them.
        Yes, I am definitely jumping on McGlinchey in the official one, hopefully his scoring from CCM follows him to the Nix.

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