The Stock Market – GW1

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stocks

I’m deciding to change things up this season, handing the captains over to Baysie. I’ve come up with a brand new idea, analysing the ups and downs of the fpl transfer market! Here are the players to watch (and be concerned about) after Gameweek 1…

The theme this week has to be “Don’t panic”.  The temptation to activate that wildcard is cursing through my veins, but I think we have to take a step back and look at things calmly. Everyone had a shocker, honestly if you broke the 50 point barrier you’re a genius. I didn’t make it to 30, the less spoken about it the better. However we didn’t select our players to be the best in GW1. I had always planned to get Aguero and Sanchez in, so the temptation was even more extreme. However I think it’s vital that we gain 1 more week of data before making any rash decisions. Once we have 2 weeks of team line-ups and performances to assess, we can make much better judgements. That being said, there are some serious options to consider!!! Let’s start with the early flyers…

On The Rise

These players stocks are on the up, they’re the most transferred in by managers… But are they the real deal?

Keepers/Defenders:

  • Romero – If De Gea confirms his exit (which seems likely) then Romero suddenly becomes hugely relevant. I have backed United in to be solid in defence this year, and they got things off to a good start against Spurs. At 5.0 he is the perfect route into United’s backline, it helps that he produced a quality display on Saturday. Hopefully his save count isn’t too low. I’d wait another week before pulling the trigger here, De Gea’s exit would make me more comfortable. Keep in mind that with almost 50000 transfers in as I write this, he is likely to go up to 5.1 before deadline.
  • Gomez – Everyone gets excited when a young defender starts getting game time, and Gomez has proven to be no different. His assist was a 3 metre pass to Coutinho, who collected the ball 40 yards out from goal and did the rest. That propelled him to the 3 bonus points, queue every man and his dog scrambling to bring him in. Let’s remember people, he is just 18!!! He only just turned 18 as well. He’s a serious talent and will get game time at Liverpool this season, but he will be rotated. If Gomez was 4.0 I’d say he’s a lock, but at 4.5 I’m happy to pass. Bellerin was a success, but Arsenal had no alternatives (Plus he was also a year older). Buy at your own risk, as a short term investment his fixtures look kind.
  • Darmian – He produced a fine display on debut at right back, hopefully furthering United’s defensive solidarity. They lacked a quality right back last season, and Valencia’s arrival on the pitch proved just how much of a difference Darmian made. At 5.5 he isn’t cheap, and Shaw is a direct rival at the same price. However Darmian is far less injury prone and should start week in week out. I rate him highly, however the train is leaving the station very early. If you can get him in on a free transfer for another 5.5 failure, I’d consider it. Otherwise I’m content to wait. He looks certain to rise within the next couple of days.
  • Oxford – *Ding* Doors closing *Ding*. Talk about a bandwagon, Oxford looks set to become a template option in defence! Priced at 4.0 and starting in defensive midfield, West Ham’s kind fixtures make him an easy option to pick. I had already thrown away my fifth defensive spot, so I’m happy to bring him in with my free transfer. Would I have him at D4? His long term job security is shaky, he’s 16 after all. FYI it doesn’t look like he will rise in price with the first group of players, however he should go up before deadline.

Midfielders:

  • Mahrez – This is the classic gameweek 1 bolter, the question is can Mahrez keep this form up? The difference between him and Albrighton is that we all considered Mahrez a solid option during pre-season, his previous inconsistencies had us being shy. He has a great role in behind the striker, and Leicester look capable of goals. We must remember it was Sunderland, who looked about as shambolic as I’ve seen a PL side. He should rise in price tonight, and is likely to go up twice (At least) before deadline. If you’re a believer then try and get him on a free transfer this week. I’m willing to back myself in with Ritchie, although it took a lot of convincing. If Mahrez scores again within the next couple of GW’s he will be hard to resist.
  • Coutinho – I’ll keep this brief. He is capable of producing magic, we knew this. However in the 85 minutes beforehand he’d created very little. I want to see more to be convinced, my advice is to let him go until he has proved himself over at least 3 weeks. Couts certainly has the talent.
  • Cabaye – Nope. He didn’t have a great game, in fact Norwich were all over Palace for most of the match. The final result was daylight robbery, and so was Cabaye’s goal. In injury time as Norwich surged players forward, Cabaye snuck into the box to score. I think there’s enough quality in the mid-price bracket that we don’t need to rely on a player such as Cabaye. He plays too deep. Others who remember his season at Newcastle seem to disagree, he is set to rise in price before the end of the week. I wouldn’t be desperately chasing him that’s for sure.
  • Ayew – He got off to a flyer at Swansea, scoring on debut against Chelsea. He was decent throughout the match, but didn’t really threaten aside from his neat finish. Hopefully he doesn’t rise so we get another look at him in GW2. If he goes up to 7.1, I’d side with Payet.
  • Toure – Oh boy, he’s at it again… He looked far more like the Toure of 2013/14 in this game than he did last season, perhaps due to City’s top signings bringing a new air of excitement. They look ready for another title charge, and Toure will be vital to their success. The problem is he still played in his deep lying role. His first goal should have been credited to Siva (Silva owners have a right to be upset), fair play to him his second was a fantastic strike. We know he’s capable of magic, however these were his only chances of the game. Of course it doesn’t matter if he scores 15 goals from 20 shots, but I still don’t think it’s sustainable. If he starts assisting, then I’ll have to re-consider him. If you’re a Toure fan however, get on board. Yaya was substituted but I’m confident he will be fine for next week. Be warned, you trade before Saturday team news at your own risk!!!

Forwards:

  • Kone – No, no, no, NO, NOOOOOOOO.

no gif

  • Gomis – Now this is an option I can get behind. Just check out Baysie pumping him up pre-season to know more about him, what a call! Well, so far at least. There was one questionable factor about this performance. He has never scored more than 16 goals in a season, even when he was the main man at Lyon. There must be a reason for that, and I think we saw it on the weekend. Chelsea gave him as many chances, if not more than any bottom team (Apart from maybe Sunderland) would. He should have finished a 1v1 on his right foot, he also missed an open header of a corner. He did well to win the penalty, but he really should have scored more. He practically lives offside! The potential is there, however he needs to be clinical to push towards 20 goals. Even so, 7.0 is a great price. A solid differential, the good news is that he’s unlikely to go up before deadline, giving us another week to assess his potential.

Firesale

Keepers/Defenders:

  • Courtois – Ouch… I was never a fan of picking Courtois, but nobody could have foreseen a disaster like this. Basically, the doomsday scenario occurred and you have to trade him (Pending the result of his red card appeal). I’d go for someone like Fabianski or Romero and pocket the cash for a rainy day.
  • Baines – People actually started with him? Hopefully none of us… Having said that I believe he was injured in training just before the game, which is unlucky to be fair. He was however under an injury cloud beforehand. His 1 point would have been handy this week! Let’s remember that Everton, well… Suck. Keep in mind that players with red flags take more transfers out to lower in price, meaning you have until the end of the week to decide what to do with him (Even though he is transferred out by over 80000 managers). That is if the system remains the same as last season…
  • Jagielka – As I said, Everton, don’t touch them. I seriously hope they can turn it around, but for now their form and fixtures make for ugly reading. Martinez is in trouble.

Midfielders:

  • Ki – He was considered a decent differential in midfield, but as expected he was fielded in a deep lying midfield role. His injury gives you the perfect excuse to swap him straight to Mahrez for zero fuss. No brainer.
  • Walcott – The biggest news from an fpl perspective was that Theo Walcott didn’t start for Arsenal. This was always a concern. It’s not that he won’t start games this season, but Wenger will rotate him and Giroud depending on who they play. Luckily Giroud was woeful, but Theo had little impact either after coming on with 30 to play. I am keen to give him another go this week, however Benzema arriving (Unlikely) would end his fantasy prospects. For now, considering that he should start this week I’m going to give Theo one last chance. His potential hasn’t changed…
  • Ozil – Ozil is failing to deliver, it’s as simple as that. If you want to know what a world class left footed creator looks like, go and watch David Silva play. I just can’t see Ozil stepping up his goal and assist count, but they were my thoughts pre-season as well. If you disagreed, back your research and gut.

Forwards:

  • Ulloa – Vardy and Okazaki look like they’ll be leading the line for Leicester this season, making Mahrez their main penalty taker and leaving Ulloa for bench duties. Trade.
  • Giroud – He was extremely disappointing after getting a start against West Ham, then again so was every Arsenal player. Perhaps we should remain calm with the Gunners in our side for this week at least. Having said that, Giroud will be in and out of the starting XI, making him a waste of funds. Trade.

Considering that almost every player was poor, not many stand out as obvious options to trade. No one should be knee-jerking after just 1 gameweek, and impressively it looks like most managers are holding tight. That doesn’t mean there isn’t the typical GW1 rush for those who starred this week, just be careful to not get sucked in…

Player of the Week

He’s unlikely to go up in price, and he was by no means the highest scorer. However Payet impressed me the most. He came with a big billing, and I was extremely interested to get my first look at him live. I loved what I saw. He turned it on whenever West ham got the ball, I can certainly see him re-producing at least what Sigurdsson managed last season. At 7.5, he is on the expensive side for a newcomer, but he looked worth every penny. He won’t go up in price so there’s no panic, however home games against Leicester and Bournemouth give him the perfect opportunity to push on and become an awesome differential. He’s certainly my pick of the new mid-pricers, even though Wijnaldum and Ayew were quality as well.

So, there you have it! Hopefully you enjoyed this new format, I sure had fun writing it. We’re hoping to have a Q&A out this week, along with a new PODs article, a guest post and Baysie’s captaincy picks! Refresh, restart and pretend GW1 never happened…

48 comments on “The Stock Market – GW1

  1. N1qQ45 4R3 K1nG5

    Payet is certainly one that I pondered over very little, couldnt believe my eyes when you guys were praising him pre-season, brought him in straight away and havent looked back since! What even more exciting is that in the VS version of FPL he is priced at 4.49m pounds, which is a bargain! Where the natural premium range is 8-10m pounds!

    This is probably what we need each Monday, calm our senses before we can get to a computer screen and knee-jerk (usually read on my phone). Cheers Matt 🙂

  2. Colin - Tucana111548

    I was going to be disciplined and hold firm. Then you come up with “The Stock Market” and I’m ready to knee jerk.

  3. theultimateandy

    Walcott and Rooney out.
    Sanchez and Kun in.

    Had money put aside and planned to do it over 2 weeks but this week was such a nightmare, I don’t want to wait.

    Next up will be Cech if he continues at this level of terrible.

  4. ed24f1

    I reckon the early deadline because of the Friday night (UK time) game will catch quite a few out this week.

  5. Beerman

    A great read Matt… keep it up. A quick question… at what point exactly in the week are player prices increased or reduced? Beyond player performance does it depend on the number of punters buying/ selling. Cheers !

    • mattcraigdt Post Author

      I believe it used to happen around 2am GMT. Can’t confirm that yet for this season. Yes mostly dependant on amount of people buying and selling, not solely how they perform

  6. Bio Eden Hazard

    Absolutely love the new format Matt, a great read. I’m tempted by Oxford of course but I think I’m just gonna stay put this week and bring Aguero and Sanchez for GW3. Need some reliable players, although they are super expensive and will need to deliver week in week out.
    Really wish I could find some space for Payet but I don’t think he will fit my team structure…

  7. joelharrison82

    Great write up Matt. Oxford looks very tempting as a replacement for Morgan as my 5th defender as I need to start pocketing cash to bring in both aguero and Sanchez when they start to hit form.

  8. stevenfsexton

    Have already gone bassong to oxford, should I go Walcott to Payet for a hit? Walcott will start this week you’d assume but it would free up enough cash to get aguero in next gw. Wait and see but would mean prolonging the in inevitable longer…

  9. bill2k

    I banked on Taylor starting over colo and seems that backfired a bit. Not Sure wether to straight trade to Oxford or keep a trade in the bank for next week?

    Sitting 6th in the dt league and want to try capitalize on the good start.

  10. hwhite94

    Struggling to find the info on players transferred in and out where are you guys getting info from? Under net transfers it just says 0 for all players atm.

  11. Tee Bow Red

    Great read Matt! Quality information as usual

    Thoughts on which is a better combo.

    Lens and Payet or Sterling and Sinclair? With the rest of my mid consisting of Haz, Sanchez and Mahrez.

    Loving Payet and Lens run of games to start the season. But Sterling might be better long term. Panic stations already!

  12. Ryan Crowley

    What’s going on with the price change system this year? Mahrez still not gone up?! Seems like it’s gonna be really slow all year which could really affect trading strategy.

    • mattcraigdt Post Author

      Woops! They changed the time that prices change, system still looks to be functioning the same way… To be honest Mahrez hadn’t even been transferred in by 100k managers. Sigurdsson had 250k transfers in during GW1 last season. People are playing it smart.

  13. Derek

    Great format, Matt. Easy to ready . . . Great tips on who did well and who did poorly . . . Great insight on who’s price will go up quickly, who’s will go up slowly and who’s price will be decreasing! Excellent and exactly the stuff I’d love to read after every GW!

  14. James

    Pissed off with Sterling, Hazard, Chamberlain, Kane, Depay pretty much doing nothing. Hold all? Need to dump Fuchs quick.

  15. baysietoff

    Great stuff Matt!!!

    Haha Ko-No. He’s in a similar boat to Naismith last season… He had a bad knee injury and took two years to get back to playing decent football. If Lukaku misses games I’ll be having a sneaky sideways glance his way. He gets a bad rap I reckon.

  16. Hplate

    Lol love the Kone summary. As straight forward as you get.

    I’m surprised how many are bringing in Aguero this early. He’s still under a fitness/rest cloud, and up against Chelsea who will be keen to put in an improved defensive performance against a title rival. We all know what this means: Chelsea bus well and truly parked.
    If Kun manages to score this week I’ll be surprised but the Silva-Aguero-Sterling trio looks like it could be a FPL points machine.

  17. luckypunk05

    interesting stuff/article matt!!
    got a 46 points gw1 with 7 on the bench(Lens/francis)so,no need for panic(yet)
    i think your right Hplate;)..so i ve got this crazy idea of ditching Hazard for Payet and upgrade deeney to Kane……,what do ya wrecken,FPL Regulators!!

    gk-Boruc/Rudd

    def- Darmian-Clyne-Cedric-Francis-Baker

    mid-Depay-Ritchie-Lens-Silva-Hazard(Payet)

    for- Rooney-Benteke-Deeney(Kane)

  18. Pingback: The Stock Market – GW2 « FPLaddicts

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