The Writers Side – GW4 Wildcard Decision

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FPL writers tend to prescribe ideas writer @liambednarski is taking a gestalt approach opening the door to the inner workings of his team.

FPL is full of people advising on strategies, transfers and starting line ups each week. It certainly has its advantages particularly for the ego of the writer but it doesn’t help with the complex situations we face within the game.

You would be hard pressed to find two people who have the exact same team let alone make the same transfer decisions. FPL is an individual game yet you are also competing against everyone else. For those that have ever graced the humble greens of a golf course you would be able to relate. You beat yourself up with every poor putt or transfer. A wild drive off the tee or an eight point hit gone wrong.

Essentially you are competing against yourself so my words of wisdom are

‘Go with your gut’

Remember that everybody makes mistakes and that there are few true experts of the game of football. Especially those with a fantasy football swing on things.

The Writers Side – GW3 Review

 A score of 43 points in GW3 after a miserable captain score from Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The penalty misses this week hurt our scores and caused uncertainty in regards to the role at numerous clubs.

Eden Hazard was delightful against Burnley achieving an 11 point haul. Top of ‘The Watchlist’ his form has returned to an impressive level.

West Brom came through with the double clean sheet in what was a dour affair against Middlesborough. With little action throughout the match the winners on the day were FPL managers invested in both defences.

Tadic continues to be a tease whilst Ramirez is the bright point in a limited attack. Both players roles are beginning to be questioned within this FPL squad.

Jakupovic has become a save machine with an impressive save point tally this week. Only 6 points on the pine this week. Good bench players *head pat*.

Sitting a single point above the GW3 average is the very definition of the word as doubts begin to linger over the make up of this FPL squad.



The Writers Side – Wildcard Strategy

I have discussed my pragmatic approach previously in regards to wildcards without detailing the strategy involved behind the choice to active one.

The price movements within the game are at their peak early in the season with a majority of registered players interested in how their teams are performing.

As this interest dies off the market begins to slow down, we see less movements in price.

A ‘GW4 Wildcard’ allows us to capitalise on the majority of the market movements making some quick profits whilst stabilising our sides for the challenges ahead.

The FPL market starts to calm down with relatively settled line ups from teams. We become aware of who the form players are and who is on set pieces for each side.

With the transfer market about to close the Wildcard gives one the ability to transfer in a potential gem. Allowing for our sides to be reconstructed around them.

There is now an international break so we have two weeks to make as many trades as we want with the transfer market closing on the 31st of August at 11:59PM (London Time).

GW4 does not start until the 10th of September 11:30AM (London Time) giving us a well earned break to settle our teams and discuss our strategies.

Other Tips

  • A player can rise or decrease in price a maximum of 0.3 between now and GW4
  • You only earn 50% of profits on player price (i.e. player raises 0.2 in price you earn 0.1)
  • If you wildcard early and keep an eye on the market movers you can make a handful of 0.1 gains over the next two weeks
  • Jakupovic (4.1), Hazard (10.2), Fer (5.2), Capoue (4.7) have already risen this week, hurting those slow to wildcard

The Writers Side – GW4 Transfer Thoughts – Wildcard Activated

Alarm bells are ringing throughout my FPL side this week with a large number of issues. Generally I activate a Wildcard if four or five transfers are required amongst the squad of 15 players. This is certainly the case.

Sergio Aguero elbowed Winston Reid in the face and is sure to face a charge from the FA in relation to this. A charge of violent conduct is likely which will see the leading FPL striker face a three match ban.

Team mate John Stones has an eye injury with heightened concerns over his teams ability to keep a clean sheet considerations have to be made on his abilities.

George Friend is trying his best not to be a friend of our FPL squads with a muscle injury in the EFL Cup (League Cup) forcing him out of this weekends clean sheet. The cautious manager at Middlesborough is unlikely to rush him back into action.

Riyad Mahrez missed a penalty which cost FPL managers a healthy haul of points and raised doubts over Leicester’s regular penalty taker. Jamie Vardy is talented from 11 yards and may now be in charge of spot kicks.

This added to the impending suspension of Andre Gray for comments on Twitter. There is limited prescience in this area. I expect a lengthy ban of five or more matches. The FA is not great at dealing with these types of issues so it could swing between a one and 10 match ban.

Tadic the king of underlying performances was substituted early which is a worry. His fitness base has not always been his greatest asset unfortunately. I see Tadic being valuable in FPL at times this season but his teams start has been uninspiring with others presenting value in his price range.

Ramirez is also failing to get points, although the bright point of Middlesborough’s play the attacking midfielder is not creating the expected amount of chances on goal.

Even the 15th placed man in the FPL squad Amat is under threat with a poor performance against Leicester. Giving away a penalty and generally having a bad time in a horrid performance for the youngster.

My wildcard is now active with the flexibility available extremely refreshing as I begin to shape a new side for the reminder of the season.

The Writers Side – Final Decision

GW4 trades were not made with lightening speed as the final whistle blew on the weekends matches I was asleep. An (Eden) Hazard to the FPL managers being based in Australia I nodded off before Sterling notched his second goal.

Early transfers so far in my GW4 Wildcard are:

Mahrez (9.5) transferred to Ozil (9.5)

Tadic (7.4) transferred to Sterling (8.1)

Ramirez (5.5) transferred to Capoue (4.7)

0.1 Cash in Bank

Unlimited Transfers due to Wildcard being Active

The writers side will return on the other side of the International Break in the build up to GW4. The Watchlist will be updated throughout the week as usual with the schedule being shuffled slightly due to this additional piece and the length of the break between GW’s. I encourage discussion and questions below in regards to your transfer and Wildcard considerations.


31 comments on “The Writers Side – GW4 Wildcard Decision

  1. bioedenhazard

    A lot of managers are likely to use their wildcard this week (international break and all…). I’m wary of using it so early in the season but Gray/Aguero/Stones… likely absence may force my hand. Team value is another concern…arrrrghhh tough choices 🙂

  2. 19pizzujak

    I have also used my wildcard and am wondering who the best striker option is for Gray (if suspended). This player would have to be under 6.6 however I could swap Sterling for Cazorla and get away with someone at under 7.2. Already have Negredo and Ibra as other forwards. Cheers

  3. The Swan and Paedo

    I didn’t want to use my WC so early on but really had little choice after this weekend. Luckily I activated it last night and already caught all 4 price rises.

    I really wanted some advice on my backline. This is the area I really want to get nailed down because I will not be using my second wildcard until a DGW so it could be over 30 weeks from now. In that time I really want to avoid using transfers on defenders so really keen to get this right.

    My GKs are set as Heaton/Robinson and I’m very happy with that cheap, low-stress approach. I also have Shaw and he will be staying put although if he gets to 5.7 this week before Valencia gets to 5.6 then I will transfer to gain the 0.1 as I feel these two are essentially the same player.

    For the other spots I am leaning towards a fixed back 3 all the way up to the DGW when I wildcard. I despise rotation and always get it wrong.

    My options for the other 2 spots alongside Shaw/Valencia are:

    Van Aanholt

    I have narrowed it down to those 3 because I really want attacking players. I hate relying on clean sheets- it is stressful and unpleasant. Baines looks a good option if he can stay fit and hopefully retains penalties. Ivanovic looks to be playing well again and attacking a lot, but his price is maybe prohibitive, PVA is probably the most attacking defender in the league and I feel like Sunderland will actually be ok defensively- watched them this weekend and thought they were decent. And Janmaat really excites me playing as a wing back. Not confident in Watford’s clean sheet ability but he is a pleasure to watch and own and could explode in a more advanced position.

    My other option is to pick just one of these 4 guys and have Evans as a fixed defender. I am not sure what will develop at WBA as the fans seem pretty fed up with the football being played and I can see Pulis getting the boot if results don’t go well. I think I’d prefer having Evans as a first sub.

    Final option is have 2 premos and then Evans and Pieters rotating for 3rd spot. They rotate pretty well and Pieters might drop to 4.4 before next GW which would be good. But I don’t know if I can face rotation. Ugh.

    Then finally there is the D5 position. I have Amat there currently but no idea how long he stays in the team. It looks like Lenihan will drop this week so I could just throw away the position and gain 0.1. Or the other extreme is to have 3 premos and then Evans D4 and Pieters D5. This would give me excellent strength in depth esp with Capoue at M5 but obviously uses up a bit of extra coin.

    Sorry for the essay, love to hear anyone’s thoughts!

    • bioedenhazard

      For defenders, I like to have two premiums/semi premiums (5 or 5.5 tops), two 4.5 and one 4.0 that I basically never use. With Aguero and Ibrahimovic being essential in attack and the high priced midfielders like Hazard, Sanchez and Ozil starting to fire, cannot afford to spend a penny more on defense.

    • Liam Post Author

      You caught all four price rises? I am confused because that would mean you have Jakopovic instead of Robinson at the current moment.

      For some reason I forget the second wildcard wasn’t locked to the January transfer window anymore. Interesting.

      I really like your thinking in regards to the Shaw and Valencia situation, its genius.

      So too with Lenihan every single 0.1 is vital at this stage of the season.

      Baines – With penalties in the bag he is almost essential at that price.
      Ivanovic – The expectation is that Zouma will be out until the New Year consider Terry highly
      PVA – His output depends on his manager. I think he is overpriced, they will struggle to stay in the league in my opinion. Clean Sheets depend on Kone staying. Review after Deadline Day.
      Janmaat – when Watford fixtures turn and the team settles he is perhaps a viable option.

      Evans is extremely injury prone and Pieters is a yellow card magnet. Consider those factors.

      Capoue’s positioning was very advanced this weekend, excellent for a 4.7 option.

      Wish I had not of fallen asleep and missed the price rises snagging him at 4.6 would have been nice.

      • The Swan and Paedo

        So I put Jaku in for Robinson in the hope of a 0.2 price rise. I will put Robinson back in before deadline.

        Good point about Pieters, wasn’t ware of that but looked into it and it’s not great. As for Evans, well I currently have Mcauley and was going to switch to Evans when Mcauley gets to 4.7 for the 0.1 gain. Mcauley is like 36 so I don’t feel too happy about having him there long term. Do you think Pulis is safe?

        Interesting about Zouma, didn’t know that. Will have to consider JT now!

        And you think it’s fine throwing away D5 with Lenihan and running through the Xmas schedule with 2 subs? I always have AOA chip to help.

        • Liam Post Author

          Nice idea. I am considering the same with Jaku probably for Pickford depending if Sunderland sign a GK.

          I thought of the same thing after your brilliant idea for Shaw to Valencia.

          The issue is Evans is extremely likely to go down with injury at some point this season which will leave you short if you pick a dead 5th defender. I am leaning towards him as he tends to do decent with the bonus points system.

          With Galloway coming in at RB the OOP Dawson has been moved to CB next to McAuley. I am currently considering Galloway as well as Evans.

          McAuley is a fine defender even considering his age. He didn’t make it into the FPL until later in his career and has done remarkably well for club and country. I don’t consider his position under threat nor the position of Tony Pulis.

          The club have recently undergone a change of ownership but they have had limited transfer in or out of the club. They did sell James Chester who I thought would contend for the CB role with McAuley over time so it all looks fairly comfortable for McAuley at the current time.

          Could change before the close of the transfer window but it seems unlikely.

          Zouma came out and told the press he wasn’t going to rush back from his knee injury. Is expected to start training again in late September but could be a further eight weeks away or more from a start in the side. I believe he is aiming for the new year although I could be wrong.

          Confidence in JT is high unless they invest before the window closes. I will be finding a spot for him if Aguero is suspended otherwise I will probably go with Baines-Shaw/Valencia as a power two at the back with Stones-McAuley-Lenihan

          Aguero out power three of Terry-Baines-Shaw/Valenica with McAuley-Lenihan.

          John Stones is still in the mix at that discount price he offers little to no attacking returns though.

          He will be reconsidered if I am short on cash, starts racking up clean sheets and is preferred over a fit Kompany.

  4. Superoctagonal

    I’m not so sure you needed to wildcard. You talked yourself into it! Haven’t seen Tadic this year but he is just as likely to smash a brace out against the Gunners! Back your research in for more than 3 weeks. I’ve got Townsend, Wilson and Eriksen. Utter crap but I’ll give them at least 5 weeks. Will Aguero get a ban? His clean record and the fact he wasn’t looking at the target. Accidental IMO. Stones has to go though and maybe Gray but you must really want team value for later in the season. Team value isn’t that important, when you look at the most valuable teams last year, they all had crap rankings. Can’t believe your trading Mahrez, I want to get him in!

    • Liam Post Author

      Hey Superoctagonal,

      Thanks for the thoughts its good to have different opinions thats what we hope for but also to be able to discuss different points of view.

      I have ignored team value for the past two seasons so have decided to focus on it early this season in a change of approach.

      Tadic has been great. I am yet to investigate why he was subbed off but he had two good chances and played off some balls for shot assists on the weekend.

      The problem with Tadic is he is more then likely going to drop in price again to 7.3 and as good as he is that means I lose 0.2 on him whilst the other options rise in price.

      I traded Sterling in for him so I already lost 0.2 on the starting position if I was to wait another week or two the net loss could be 0.4 or 0.5 that is fairly significant. I can always trade him back in with an extra 0.3 or so in my pocket.

      My general attitude is to wait it out, the sample size is much too small at the start of the season. I am trying a different approach this season for better or for worse in the hope that I learn some new things about the game.

      I don’t believe in Townsend thats my stance on him, he does have potential though.

      Wilson had a great opportunity to score on the weekend, I see him being a good option at times this season.

      Eriksen well Spurs are changing their style at the current time so it is hard to suggest who is a good option on that team. Lamela is picking up the points and the price rises but that doesn’t mean he is the best option.

      I really think Mahrez needs penalties to be a supreme option and he may have lost them. Also Ozil is rising in price so I could make a quick profit on him before trading Mahrez back in before the start of GW4.

      You have valid points I must say and the fact that teams with the highest team value don’t have good rankings is true. I am not trying to have the best team value I am just trying to have a better one then usual and see if it brings me benefits this season.

      Every season is different it can be hard to compare one to the next. Rest assured I will be owning up and discussing if my team goes to water in the coming weeks due to an early wildcard.

  5. Cityzens_Blue

    I used wild card last week,got 58 thanks to sterling,hazard and def I have morgan shaw walker love and amat;if walker is not fit till start of gw who should I transfer in?I have baines in mind or should I go with terry or mustafi if he by any means come at 5.5??
    and my 2nd q. if aguero misses around 3 matches either by any means should I get in costa to pair up with negredo and ibra and do a minus hit and get ozil for redmond to make a trio of hazard sterling and ozil,barkley being my 4th man??
    have ur say liam.

    • Liam Post Author

      1. Baines is ahead of Terry in my thinking at the current time. Check out defensive watchlist for more thoughts.

      2. Diego Costa is not the best FPL player to have with his accumulation of yellow cards and lack of bonus points.

      I like that power four midfield but remember to consider who easy or hard it will be to get Aguero back into your side after his ban.

      Planning to bring him in as easily as possible is important as well.

      • Cityzens_Blue

        zero in bank!!out of ideas,suggest a brainer for me liam
        foster jakupovic
        shaw walker morgan amat love
        hazard sterling barkley redmond maloney
        aguero ibra negredo
        this was my wild card team last week,since kun is now gone for 3 weeks I think it is wise to sell him. I have 2 things in mind
        1. costa comes in and midfield shapes as:
        hazard sterling barkley ozil maloney
        2. any 6.6 forward and redmond goes for sanchez or maloney goes for sanchez,redmond stays!!
        for the sake of minus hit
        or liam can u suggest something more sensible??

        • Liam Post Author

          Aguero has been charged by the FA but he could appeal the decision. It is not yet confirmed so I would sit tight on that trade.

          He will miss two FPL fixtures if he is suspended and is currently nursing a calf injury as well.

          1. I would look at Lukaku instead of Costa personally or at least think about a decision between the two.

          2. Rondon or Hernandez are your best bets at that price or you could cheap out and go Stuani at 5.0 who is in good form also.

          Its difficult to make suggestions right now with the Aguero & Gray bans looming.

          I am going to keep trading for value in regards to my wildcard but sit tight on anything to do with Aguero. I encourage you to do the same until it is confirmed.

  6. Pranav Raut

    What are your thoughts about Firmino and Redmond? Currently I’m holding Lamela Capoue and Hazard apart from those 2 with 1.6 in bank. I’m not considering wildcard for this week but the absence of Sterling and Sanchez is worrying me. What are your suggestions?

    • Liam Post Author

      Firmino is playing fine not great but fine. The Liverpool midfield is a minefield at the current time.

      My advise is to avoid it entirely for the moment. If you own him it’s a personal gut call to sell or hold. His got great potential.

      Redmonds role might change slightly with Southamptons latest signing.

  7. The Swan and Paedo

    Turns out a non-Aguero team is pretty amazing.





    I’m really starting to wonder if this might be an option. I was considering a non-Zlatan team but you kind of talked me out of it. This might be even riskier but the moves of Benteke and Bony have changed things a lot for me.

    This team basically leaves me no way whatsoever to get Kun back in so it is a very all-in approach. It’s certainly a way of differentiating my team from the masses without taking any major risks on players.

    I have great flexibility with the forwards, can easily downgrade to Wilson, Deeney, Defoe, Gray and others if needed. Can also downgrade to guys like Siggy and Tadic in midfield very easily.

    No Aguero is a huge risk but looking at this team and similar variations makes me think it makes more sense to go without. Captaincy can be rotated between Ibra and Hazard and Mane for games where Liverpools opponents have slow backlines.

    • Liam Post Author

      Transfer Deadline Day has changed things considerably.

      Players who have transferred from Premier League Club to Premier League Club are generally unpriced.

      Bony, Benteke, Remy are three that come to mind. Having been left to rot at major clubs they have had poor seasons. Not seen as first choice options their prices have been reduced.

      Priced as bench fodder not as first choice strikers they are set to take this FPL season in a slightly different direction.

      I am a big Mane fan but I can’t condone his inclusion at the current time. The Liverpool midfield is a minefield and he was extremely inconsistent at Southampton. He is not the finished article although extremely explosive on his day.

      Yet to measure up my side but I will be looking to see if I can squeeze Sanchez in whilst still having a strong front three. If not it will be Ozil and a long think about that 4th midfielder.

      Lots to think about in the coming week. I need to assess the moves before making any decisions or sturdy opinions.

      • The Swan and Paedo

        There are so many huge decisions to make- makes for a really great season!

        One of the key tenets of poker is not to be too results-oriented. Variance and luck are huge factors in both poker and fantasy sports and it’s important to view things correctly. I have seen both of Mane’s games this season and he has been incredible. A wonder goal vs Arsenal and should’ve had at least one vs Spurs. If that offside hadn’t been given he would have 2 in 2 and there would be a huge clamour from the masses to get him in. Instead, everyone has had their head turned by Sterling and Sanchez simply because they delivered in week 3. Not to say these guys aren’t great picks (I think they are) but it shouldn’t mean we just forget about guys like Mane, Barkley, Coutinho just because of one blank.

        Another reason I like this non-Aguero team is because there are a few guys yet to get started who could soon explode. Kane and Eriksen could benefit massively from Sissoko and Dembele coming in, Mahrez is playing fine and is only one missed penalty away from being one of the top-scoring mids, Payet is due back with amazing fixtures and Mikhitarian looked amazing in his HUll cameo and could be a beast.

        An Aguero team, especially with Sanchez in there, just makes it so hard to get these players in. Personally, I think Hazard is the biggest must-have because he covers such a high% of Chelsea’s attacking points and hoovers up BAPs. Sanchez is the least essential of the big 4 because of no penalties. Kun and Ibra are both very close but the price of Kuna and his never-ending injuries are making me go off him. His imminent suspension has kind of masked the fact that he is hurt yet again.

        • Liam Post Author

          Variance and luck are huge factors. Currently I am just playing the price market whilst the majority of players in the game are active (more movement in the market).

          Its not a game style I am comfortable playing but I am seeking to work on team value more this season then in seasons past.

          What you have said about Mane is extremely valid. Normally I would push my opinion across as a balancing tool but in this situation I don’t think I need to.

          Well on your way to making valid decisions for yourself. I am always here for a discussion or to raise a point.

          I see Liverpool as finishing outside the Champions League places whilst I see Manchester City going close to winning it.

          Sterling comes in significantly cheaper then Mane in a more lethal attack. An outrageous formation is in place by Pep he is attacking like no one ever has in my time watching the PL.

          Tottenham are adjusting to new players at the current time and in my humble opinion will drop off on last seasons performance. Leicester weren’t the only overachievers last season.

          They are improving as a club, yet they are still buying in the second tier market. I thought they were improving and going for good young prospects only then they go and sign Sissoko…

          Leicester have just signed Mahrez’s international team mate as a striking option. The team is also in a state of change. There was too much weight on Vardy and Mahrez to perform last season although they still managed to do so remarkably.

          I expect a downturn in his output of fantasy points but still expect him to perform well. Whether he is worth 9.5 in FPL I am not sure.

          Payet’s injury recovery was superb last season was great last season but West Ham really over performed. Debatable if he over performed too, I think he did especially on dead balls he was in superb form on free kicks.

          I really like Payet and I notice I am half glass full here, just trying to provide an alternative view point. His price is fair but West Ham is changing so much on the field. They never signed the striker they wanted and ended up with Zaza. I know very little about Zaza so lets see how it all fits together.

          A friend of mine is on ‘Mikhitarian Watch’ sends me a text every time his price changes. We are both waiting for him to hit form / secure minutes before transferring him in.

          His a better FPL player then Ozil because his more of a goal threat. The worry is that his going to be eased in / might not make the adjustment to the league quickly.

          Like all players Aguero is good to have at times and bad to have at others. The fact that he breaks your team everytime he hits form or gets injured is frustrating. There are valid reasons to build a team without him but you will get crushed when his fit, firing and captain material.

    • Liam Post Author

      Not at all. The team is still in flux over the wildcard period.

      Hoping a cheeky double price rise occurs. Either for a player I don’t want to keep or can move on for a suitable replacement.

      I tend to play 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 injuries permitting.

      Will write up another piece with my completed wildcard team on Friday.

      • The Swan and Paedo

        Well here’s my current wildcard team:

        Heaton – Robinson

        Valencia – Baines – PVA (Mcauley – Amat)

        Hazard – Ozil – Sterling – Firmino (Capoue)

        Ibra – Benteke – Bony

        I’ve decided I will be only travelling with one of Zlatan or Aguero all season unless some serious budget options emerge (which I don’t see happening). For now it’s Zlatan but won’t be too hard to change.

        Decided to go Valencia over Shaw for now because he’s way more attacking. I also like the fact that he probably won’t play this week anyway.

        PVA is one I’m still not sure of but I refuse to rotate defenders anymore and he gets the nod over Janmaat but only just.

        Bony and Benteke are risky with zero form to go on but it’s very easy to jump on Defoe, Deeney, Negredo, Rondon, Gray or Remy if necessary so I feel confident with that. Deeney’s stats are pretty impressive btw.

        My other decision is whether to go with strength in depth or squeeze some extra coin out of Mcauley and Capoue. I could go Evans at 4.5 or Pieters if he drops to 4.4 by the end of the week and De Roon in for Capoue to make 0.2. This leaves me with weaker coverage when injuries hit but also means I am less likely to get bench-trolled. Also, I might be able to squeeze in Coleman over PVA with the extra money saved.

        • Liam Post Author

          Good Squad.

          I am not sold on ‘PVA Glue’ at the current moment.

          Big Sam got insane output from him but not as many clean sheets as was hoped.

          Sunderland have gone the youth approach which I haven’t seen too often in the Premier League.

          I can not comment on their future fortunes at the current moment.

          Personally I will be going for Pickford at 4.0 given that Jakupovic has most likely lost his place in goal (or will be seriously challenged).

          Jakupovic is in sensational form but long term Pickford looks a stronger prospect.

          I would go with Janmaat myself. I see more of an upside in Watford then Sunderland. This is just my opinion though with very little statistics behind it.

          A wait and see style of situation. Might be worth sticking with John Stones to be honest then trading in the form 5.0 option if he is dropped for Kompany.

          Gives you the top 5.0 option (defensively at least) whilst allowing time to pass to assess how Sunderland and Watford settle respectively.

          Sounds good on the front line and the Valencia call. I am still hoping Shaw increases in value before Valencia but it seems doubtful. Currently holding both and will most likely take the 0.1 profit on Shaw and turn him into Baines.

          I am wondering if McAuley will keep going up in price with another clean sheet. Trying to assess whether its a good idea to take the 0.1 now or wait it out a little longer.

          Same issue with Foster as well. Wait it out and see if his value continues to increase or make a move now.

          Your value hunting has raised a question for me is it more beneficial to keep some of these bandwagon players for a longer period of time or take the 0.1 gains to reinvest elsewhere in the side.

          Much pondering on that point.

          • The Swan and Paedo

            Looks like Foster will go up again before the deadline so you could make profit now and cash him in. If you had Heaton would you prefer Robinson as backup or Pickford? The reason I like the handcuffing strategy is it means I have a nailed on replacement if Heaton gets hurt. It also means I can start with Robinson each week and if Heaton gets sent off I avoid the negative points.

            Unfortunately Shaw has now been yellow-flagged on the FPL site so it’s likely to deter new buyers and stop him going up again.

            One interesting thing I’ve read recently is that ‘touches in the penalty area’ is consistently the biggest predictor of fantasy points, especially amongst mids. Sterling is currently miles ahead of the rest so far this year and was well placed last year too. Interestingly, Scott Dann has been comfortably the leader in this category amongst defenders over the last couple of years so I wonder if he is actually a little bit underpriced and worth considering?

            One thing about PVA is that he’s taken 5 corners in 3 games this year having taken a grand total of one in the previous two seasons. If he can pick up some more assists then that could make him more consistent I guess. But generally I agree that Sunderland will probably be quite weak this year.

          • Liam Post Author

            Pickford because he has the possibility of increasing in value there still remain valuable reasons to hold onto Robinson though.

            A flag can change the timing of a decrease in price not sure about an increase in price. I think he might sneak up in price before the deadline (fingers crossed).

            Interesting I used to heavily value this metric too but you have to consider why they are in the box, shot locations and shots in general.

            It is a great statistic to use as a starting point but it certainly isn’t a determination of attacking returns or talent.

            Sterling is in general a poor shot taker. He takes shots from difficult angles and poor locations in my opinion. He has some way to improve in this regard.

            Scott Dann has lots and lots of touches in the box but you have to consider why, include the context.

            He gets a lot of ineffective touches of corners as well as some extremely effective ones.

            I advise you to find a short highlights reel from Crystal Palace’s match against Bournemouth recently.

            The set piece intent particularly from corners was actually jaw dropping for me watching. The goal threat was real and obvious for me to see with my eyes. As well as in the data.

            Clean sheets are still an important factor for a defender because his goals are entirely random and you can’t expect him to score 5 a season every season either due to the random nature of headed goals.

            I feel his overpriced due to last seasons random returns. That said his one of the top threats from corners in the league.

            Personally I will steer clear of him only a penalty taking player from a top half side would entice myself at 5.5 (Baines!) but that is personal taste. Palace have a large amount of upside now with the strikers and goalkeeper they have purchased.

            Timing is the key with good fixtures ahead perhaps it is the appropriate time to take a risk on Dann.

            Personally I still think they are short in central midfield and will struggle to protect the defence.

            Should see an upside to their attack with Remy and Benteke but the central attacking midfielder is also average.

            I can see a lot of long and wide balls being played into the box given the recruitment in the middle of the park / the teams current style.

            Also its great that you are looking at match data but layering it with context is always important. Considering other factors (whether within the data or not) is vital, I wouldn’t consider recommending a player on one particular metric alone for FPL.

            PVA. I think his a player that is going to fall into the ‘grey area’ of personal judgement this season.

            My recommendation is to avoid him until Sunderland show defensive stability or his attacking is too good to refuse as I believe better 4.5 options will appear.

            That is a pragmatic approach. His attacking talent is there for all to see and its why he is priced at 5.0 if you see him as a viable option take that path.

            I am more then happy to be proven wrong here although I am not looking forward to Moyes game style all that much.

  8. Wiz

    Hey, i wanna use wildcard, help me with the whole team, team you would pick for GW4.. i m confused!! Whats ur final team?

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